Recently, there have been many voices in the market saying that the bull run is over, and the big players have already entered a sell-sell-sell mode, leaving only the last wave of madness with ETH and altcoins.
I have a somewhat different perspective:
First, regarding the phase, the characteristic of a bull tail is that the emotions are very FOMO, a stage of losing rationality, which doesn't seem to be the case from an emotional standpoint; looking at various long-term indicators, almost none have hit, and from a cyclical perspective, it doesn't seem to fit either; as mentioned before, this cycle is influenced by the previous cycle's massive liquidity injection, and there will be a time lag, so we can't just rely on time to make decisions. Therefore, I personally feel that we have not yet entered the bull tail.
Now, let's talk about the funding aspect. It's normal to see fluctuations around interest rate cuts; I personally also plan to take a swing trade in the next month. The funds entering the market now are different from before, as many traditional old money investors have also come in. They consider it from an asset allocation perspective and will look at it more long-term, treating it as a risk hedging tool, so they are relatively rational. Most likely, they will first allocate a small amount to BTC and ETH, then look for opportunities in other coins, rather than rushing into altcoins right away. Therefore, the altcoin season may still need some time, and we should pay attention to the leverage ratio.
After speculating on interest rate cuts, it also takes time for funds to flow in from the Fed starting to cut rates; this window period gives them time to allocate. Moreover, the more the interest rate cuts, the more the U.S. will support Crypto, after all, they need buyers for U.S. Treasuries. The larger the scale of Crypto and stablecoins, the larger the scale of buying U.S. Treasuries will be. Therefore, for a period after the interest rate cuts, there will be a continuous demand for fund inflows.
What do I think about the future market?
I personally believe that in the month before and after the interest rate cuts, BTC will undergo wide fluctuations, looking down, and it is very likely to reach around 92,000. If it does, that would be a good opportunity to buy the dip, and then it will start to rise again. ETH will adjust along with BTC, and reaching just over 3,000 would already be a good buying position. If we say ETH could reach 10,000, it’s likely that no one would believe it.
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