Good analysis of why not all revenue dollars are valued equally by investors. Inflation, sustainability in all markets, buybacks, etc are all factors.
Hyperliquid in the more enviable position.
Great rage bait here.
Comparison is poor.
Solana had minimal revenue and SOL was entirely trading on speculation when it was $260.
Hyperliquid has generated $1B in rev over the last year, trading at a fairly low P/E and uses almost all of this revenue to buyback its token, creating its own passive flows (no other alt coin has level of programmatic predictable flows).
If you want to make the argument that HYPE will go down due to declining revenue in a bear market, then sure, I think that is true.
CEX revenue dropped 50-60% in 22-23, so could see a similar contraction in rev for Hyperliquid, which would cause the price to go down.
But trading will still continue, so it will have better fudnamentals than almost anything else in the bear market.
Hyperliquid has potential avenues of growth to offset decreasing interest in the trading of crypto tokens with new RWA markets coming online, but possible that won't have matured in time this cycle.
I don't even mind anyone arguing that onchain liquidity is mercenary and HL's moat is still questionable.
But, describing hyperliquid as "just another flavor of the month perp dex" is just lazy engagement bait.
Only a handful of businesses have managed to achieve what they have in the history of crypto.
Put some respect on Jeff's name.

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