比特币本周迎来关键一周,周线能否继续强势将会影响月线级别的走势,历史上看11月通常是比特币和美股的好月份,但这个11月还是有不少的变数:
1.日线级别在115000形成巨大压力位,短期持有者重回盈利状态,潜在的抛压开始增加;
2.10月29日美联储会议,降息25个基点基本已经确定,但由于缺乏一些市场数据(政府停摆),鲍威尔发言应该会相对谨慎;
3.10月30日计划的中美会晤,由于特朗普的不易预测,对市场产生较大变数;
4.10月底财报季,苹果亚马逊微软脸书等会强化市场风险偏好;
5.近期ETF流入强劲,是相对较好的信号,观察持续性。
总之,1011清算后市场暂时没什么赚钱效应,人们对山寨币的信任彻底崩塌,这反而是给未来山寨大幅上涨做出前置条件。比特币依然处于横盘区间,估计这一两周要选方向了,见顶还是上涨中枢,预计很快见分晓。操作上如果近期再次跌破11万,我会技术性再减一些,否则剩余仓位继续持有。
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