The big pie may have peaked in its cycle, but the altcoin season has just begun👀 Today, CT once again sings the tune of "the bull market is over - the great retreat," a viewpoint that is highly consistent with the structural pain points of the options market, indicating that both BTC and ETH have reached their cyclical peaks. Especially after the massive long liquidation that set a historical record on Monday (September 22), the sentiment and positions of long holders in BTC and ETH have been severely impacted. Let's review the two major long liquidation events mentioned in Ansem's tweet during the last cycle and the corresponding context of the crypto market: 1⃣ January 11, 2021: At that time, the economic cycle was in the recovery phase of the Merrill Lynch clock, with a monetary policy environment of interest rate cuts + quantitative easing. The crypto market structure was dominated by retail investors with slight institutional involvement, market sentiment was greedy, and leverage was excessively piled up. 2⃣ December 4, 2021: At that time, the economic cycle was in the prosperity ➡️ overheating phase of the Merrill Lynch clock, with a monetary policy environment of tightening quantitative easing + expectations of interest rate hikes. The crypto market structure was characterized by retail and institutional investors competing to chase altcoins, market sentiment was extremely greedy, and leverage was excessively piled up. 3⃣ September 22, 2025: The current economic cycle is in the overheating ➡️ recession phase of the Merrill Lynch clock, with a monetary policy environment of restarting interest rate cuts after a 9-month interruption + quantitative tightening. The crypto market structure shows institutions and retail investors heavily allocated to BTC, market sentiment is neutral, and leverage is excessively piled up. Based on the above context, my judgment is that the attributes of the massive long liquidation on September 22 this week are closer to those of January 11, 2021, but the reason is the excessive allocation and leverage accumulation of institutions and retail investors in BTC. Although the valuation of altcoins, which are at a relatively historical position, has been affected by the chain liquidation, the overall upward trend has not been broken, and many strong coins have rebounded directly and even reached new highs. This massive liquidation does not mean the immediate end of the bull market, but under the intertwined expectations of stagnation/recession/soft landing, BTC and ETH will experience low volatility oscillation at their current positions. When the time turns to March 2026, the risks at the tail end of the cycle and the arrival of black swans will nuke the entire market. However, before the real doomsday arrives, there will be a wave of true madness. Currently, it still seems that altcoins will experience a wave of doomsday carnival under the influence of the seasonal effect of October's Uptober. Powell admitted last night that there is no risk-free path between maintaining employment and controlling inflation; for us crypto investors, there is also no risk-free path between maintaining Beta returns and chasing Alpha returns. For me personally, I choose to abandon beta (completely not allocating BTC and ETH) and embrace Alpha (AI Agent, AI Agent, and AI Agent). That's all.

Unity of knowledge and action, buy a little during minor panic.