行情观点
周线收线可以决定下一步进展
明早8点(距离发贴6个小时后)周线收线我认为可以判定下一步的方向
关键位置仍然是在102000区间,也就是今天向下测试的位置
如果此处撑住,我认为下周反弹的概率增高
即11月初的局部低点确认的概率增高
可以看到目前周日晚上-周一早上的常规反弹窗口仍然出现了反弹,如果CME开盘时行情稳住104区间则不会产生缺口,但开盘后怎么走才是比较重要的问题
可以看到川普在周日提及了全民发钱等政策,被认为是一个利好
下周的看点比较多,包括最高法院对关税合法性的裁决,政府停摆是否结束,以及CPI数据(周四)等,短时间的行情波动可能会随着宏观的影响而改变
大的方向还是看102不跌破,底部已经出现,后续若向上首个目标位看到112000附近,大概率可以在11月下旬完成上方测试116000的动作
若跌破102000(目前看概率较低),下方的支撑在93000左右,意味着大约再跌10%
不过此情况我目前认为概率越来越低(错过了11月初的底部窗口,筑底反弹的可能性>继续跌破的可能性)
比特币反弹若能带动以太坊,上方以太坊反弹目标位为3850(对应112000),4250(对应116000)
此外有一些山寨在这次回调后靠近周线级别底部,因此也对应进行了布局,譬如NEAR,APT,CRV等
如果此处走熊(极小概率,周线跌破102000),这些币种因为已经周线级别触底,下方空间可控(或者说对比上涨空间来说太小)
本⽂由 #BCGAME 赞助|@bcgame @bcgamecoin

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